Clay Christensen’s “disruptive technology” theory starts with the observation that technologies tend to get better at a faster rate than users’ needs increase.
This is the reason disruptive technologies are dismissed as toys–because when they are first launched they “undershoot” user needs.
But technology adoption then grows non-linearly–due to complements, network effects, others external changes (e.g. in the ecosystem).
Tech products that start out as toys can become big, if they are able to ride up the user utility curve by leveraging such external developments.
Products based on disruptive technology start out as toys, but can grow non-linearly riding on external developments. So, the next big thing will start as a toy!